Curve Down

In many countries and all US states, some kind of plan for the end of lockdown is forming. The difference is that some places are further along with containing the virus than others. Last month, Wuhan started allowing people out of their homes for limited periods of time since the lockdown began in January. Yesterday, people in Italy were allowed somewhat into public for the first time in 9 weeks. Meanwhile, in the US, there are no indicators that the virus is under control, yet states are planning "reopenings" of extremely non-essential businesses (like recreation, nail salons, etc.) that could put people in close contact and spike cases back up again.

EndCoronavirus.org

The curve in the US may have flattened, but it's not bending down, which is the other thing we need it to do. COVID-19 cases have remained at roughly the same level for the past month, while in other countries they've been able to decrease. Why? Because other countries enforced very strict lockdowns and restrictions, and made it easier for people to willingly stay home by providing better financial support for those who couldn't work. In the US we've been able to do pretty much what we want, and it's up to individuals how seriously they want to take it, whether they want to wear a mask to protect others, whether they can go longer without visiting a store, if they can keep themselves from congregating in parks on nice days, etc. Other countries did the hard thing and got it over with. Instead, the US will let this drag on and on...

Another interesting consideration is that data has shown that most people were limiting their movements prior to their state implementing an official "lockdown," meaning they already saw what was happening and made their own decision to stay home, the states merely codified it. If businesses "reopen," I think chances are very slim that most people will be patronizing them as they had been before. So reopening things probably won't change much for the economy, but will lead to more people being exposed and becoming sick because if their employer is open, they won't have a choice about staying home. (I've also seen a lot of people in favor of reopening saying things like, "Of course we'll still continue protecting the elderly and at risk." How will that determination be made? Will less healthy people be given doctors' notes and permission to stay home and receive pay or unemployment compensation? How about people who live with someone who is at risk? What about people who can't go back to work without childcare, in areas where schools are closed and camps have been cancelled?)

I'm now imagining a scenario where most of the world gets things under control, while the US becomes this wasteland nobody wants to travel to (or accept travelers from) or do business with, because the virus is running rampant. There's been lots of exciting news in the last few days about promising developments in treatments and vaccines, but I still maintain that the most effective thing we can do for now, and probably for a long time to come, is just remove human hosts from the virus' reach.