Indefinitely

Today the governor expanded the stay-at-home order to more counties in our state. This now includes the state capitol, where a lot of my friends live. Since I've already been under these orders for a while, they've been asking me how this differs from the previous orders. It really doesn't, except there are kind of more defined rules about the types of activities you should be leaving the house for: basically, anything in support of keeping yourself or others alive - or you can go for a walk outside, like I just did, if you maintain proper social distancing.

They've also closed schools in my state "indefinitely." I wish they would just stop stringing everyone along and plan that students won't be going back this year.

I got an e-mail today from my gynecologist's office saying that they are now offering telemedicine and video calls for most standard exams. Not sure how that is going to work, but as I've not had any health concerns, I assume it will be ok to skip or postpone my annual visit this year. Even my dentist's office just sent a message about the indefinite closure - I just had a check-up last month, so should be fine even if I miss the rest of this year...

My social calendar is pretty busy this evening: we decided on a path forward with my business program students to close out their program, so we have a call with them; then a tour guide friend is giving his first "virtual" tour online; and then we're celebrating another friend's birthday with a party over Zoom! 🎈

Introverts Unite

Only a few days into officially social/physical distancing, I started seeing friends say that they were mentally struggling or suffering from anxiety. The weird thing to me, is that I was feeling immense anxiety in the days and weeks leading up to all the cancellations and shut-downs, and once those things became official, I felt so much better! I actually feel great now! I think a few things contribute to this:

• I already suspected that there was going to be a long, sustained period of distancing to prevent the spread of the virus. I was actually unhappy that it wasn't sooner and [still isn't] more forceful. So I was mentally prepared for all the current restrictions, as well as prepared with supplies, since I was already there in my head and figured I should get food, etc. in the house.
• I've mentioned before that I have the privilege of being able to work from home, as does my husband now; to order food supplies online or for pick-up; to have technology to facilitate work, communication, and entertainment from home; and to not have to worry about caring for children or others during this time. If just one of those were on my plate, I would be a lot more stressed out.
• I'm a natural introvert. The other night when we had a virtual dinner with our friends, and then later they wanted to invite more friends and play games together online, my first thought was, "Ugh, spending more time with people?!" (Of course, I quickly realized how silly that was, and did still happily participate and had fun!) In regular times I feel like I have a set amount of social energy, and after a while being with people, I need to just be alone for a while to recharge. So in these socially distant times, I'm actually fully charged.

I realize my personality and circumstances make me kind of uniquely suited for this sort of situation, but not everyone has that luxury. 

If You're An Introvert, These 17 Tweets Will Speak Your Mind

Another Weekend

Well, we've blown through another weekend. My personal social distancing has been going on for 18 days (ok, 17.5 since I did stop at my office the first day to pick things up, but I didn't see or interact with anyone). I always knew that this wasn't just going to be some quick two week thing, but it seems most others are coming around to that reality as well.

In a speech several days ago, the president said he'd love to see things reopened soon and churches full of people on Easter (April 12). In a press conference tonight, he made a more reasonable pronouncement that social distancing measures should be extended to April 30. I know a number of people who are publishing daily graphs of COVID-19 cases and deaths as sort of a "hobby," including some projections, and it looks like by next week we might see a spike in deaths here in the US. Then maybe people will sober up and take these guidelines more seriously.

This was the weekend of Netflix. I binged two short series ("Unorthodox," about a young woman escaping the ultra-orthodox Jewish community in Brooklyn, and "W/ Bob & David," Bob Odenkirk and David Cross' follow-up to their late-90s series "Mr. Show," which we loved). I also made a dent in season 1 of "Mad Men;" my goal is to finish that series by the end of social distancing - pretty sure I'll have time.

This was also the day I finally cut my husband's hair. His hair is thick and grows fast, and he was already due for a haircut before everything shut down, so I knew it would be up to me. I watched a bunch of videos on YouTube and got some live coaching from my sister in-law, who is a hairdresser. I think it turned out pretty well, all things considered! There are a couple things I would change for next time (and I'm sure there will be at least a few more next times), but it looks pretty similar to how it turns out when the pros do it!

Back view of my handiwork

Dinner with Friends

I'm writing this between online meetings with friends - we "had dinner" with them earlier, and will be getting together later with some additional people to play a game online somehow (not sure yet how this all will work). Dinner was fun, and I think their kids especially got a kick out of the videoconference. I'm on conference calls all the time for work, but my husband never does them, so he was surprised by the video and the screen sharing capabilities when we displayed a picture for them.

I read two really good articles from The Atlantic this week. The first, How the Pandemic Will End, lays out short- and long-term predictions for what will happen in the coming months, looking at a future Generation C, born into a post-COVID-19 world. The end result for them could be either inward isolation or outward cooperation in the United States.

The other article, The Four Possible Timelines for Life Returning to Normal, lays out four scenarios ranging from a miraculous resolution in 1-2 months to 18+ months of waiting for a successful vaccine. All of these hinge on the fact that people who are infected and recover achieve some degree of immunity, which we don't really know anything about yet. I think the longer-term predictions in this article are realistic yet still hopeful: over the coming months, with social distancing, we can learn more about the disease, develop potential treatments to make future outbreaks less severe, and get to a point where we have better control over the spread of the disease. But in the meantime we will need to have at least some social distancing measures in place long term (e.g. small groups are ok, large events are not; maybe sporting events will be played without a crowd).

Disney World and Disneyland have officially announced that they are closed "indefinitely." This is unprecedented, and is the longest the parks have ever been closed - even after 9/11 and natural disasters they only closed for a day.

Stimulus

The big news today is that the Coronavirus stimulus package was passed by the House and the Senate, and is now with the president for his approval. I don't know a lot about everything it includes, but I know it's worth $2 trillion, and entitles most Americans to a one-time payment of $1,200 (give or take a little, depending on your previous year's earnings and number of dependents). My husband and I qualify for the full amount, but since we're both working full time, I don't feel right about accepting it. We've already been talking about where we could donate it to help our community or support the arts or others impacted by all the shutdowns.

More celebrity infections announced today, including the singer of the German band Rammstein and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the first head of state to contract the disease.

I heard that the primary election in our state is being moved from the end of April to beginning of June, and they are planning to do it in person at that time, instead of moving to all mail-in. We already applied for our mail-in ballots, so I assume will still be getting them. And I don't think our area will be ready for in-person elections by June anyway.

Opening Day

A lot of people are upset because today was supposed to be opening day of the baseball season. I don't follow sports so none of this has affected me. (I think one of my friends had the right idea - she cooked hot dogs for dinner and watched a replay of one of her favorite games.) But another reason to be upset is that the US now has the most confirmed COVID-19 cases in the world - and the third-highest number of deaths, behind China and Italy.

When this disease originally started, they said the symptoms were fever, sore throat, and a dry cough. Now they keep announcing new symptoms you may have - upset stomach, loss of taste and smell, today I saw conjunctivitis (pink eye) is a new one. Where do these new symptoms keep coming from?

My husband and I have been going on ~30 minute walks around our neighborhood. There is a small park nearby, but we couldn't figure out where the entrance was. Tonight we found it and walked through there. It ended up taking us an hour, and there were other people and kids and dogs walking there as well; with narrow trails and bridges, it wasn't as easy to get away as it is to cross the street when walking around the neighborhood. So that may be our first and last trip there. But I'm glad we finally found it!

All the playground equipment was roped off

Today I learned someone I know has COVID-19. They live in one of the "hotspot" areas and have been sick all week. With 70% of the planet predicted to get this virus, I expect this will become a common occurrence...

Tonight my team from work had our quarterly meeting with the team from Wuhan. On the agenda was their tips for working from home [and being quarantined at home] since they're now pros after 2+ months. These included setting up your home workspace, setting a schedule, and getting dressed (casual, but not pajamas). These past few weeks I have been sleeping in, operating on a weird schedule, and spending my days in sweatpants and hoodies. Maybe I should become a little more regimented as far as getting on a schedule, and wearing real pants.

For the Duration

Woke up this morning to probably the biggest celebrity news of all: Prince Charles is infected! He's quarantining in Scotland, and they say the Queen is fine.

A couple local distilleries (as well as a local putty company!) have been in the news as they've switched their operations to produce just hand sanitizer. Producers of masks and other protective equipment have increased their production, and I also heard that Ford Motor Company is planning to build respirators, ventilators, and face shields.

Today I made my farthest trip from my house in two weeks, and went to visit my grandmother (about 10 minutes away). It was very strange driving over there - even at the peak of "rush hour," there were almost no cars on the road, and lots of people out for walks instead, even though it had been cold and rainy. I live near a national park, which had remained open to the public for walks, but too many people were congregating there, parking their cars all over, and leaving a mess, so the park is now closed and there were barricades at the entrance. The electronic signs near the highway on-ramp displayed messages like, "Stay Home" and "Practice Social Distancing."

We had discussed different options for how I could see her from a safe distance, and I ended up standing on her front porch and talking to her on the phone through the window while she sat inside. Usually I would stop by and bring her things she needs or help her with little chores around the house, so it was weird not to be able to offer any help with anything, but nice to see her and catch up.

She kept making the comparison between the virus and "her war" (World War II), and talked a lot about things she'd like to do "after the duration," when this is all over. Apparently during the war, people referred to their wartime activities as things they were doing "for the duration," and plans for afterward as "after the duration." (She also told me that when she and my grandfather moved several states away for his job in 1953, he was earning $6,000 per year, which I calculated is worth $58,000 in today's dollars 😂)

At my mother's building, they have put more restrictions in place to try to keep residents safe: no congregating in common areas, limits to the number of people in an elevator, residents must go outside to pick up deliveries at the curb, etc. I'm glad they're taking these steps.

A Visit with a Friend

This evening my husband was busy finishing some work, so I went for a walk around the neighborhood by myself. I texted a friend a few blocks over as I neared her house, she came out on the porch, and I had a nice conversation with her from across the yard. It was good to talk to someone else, even from a distance, and get caught up.

We've started seeing more celebrities diagnosed with COVID-19, and what is being called the first celebrity death, Terrence McNally. And more people are now posting on social media that either they have the virus, or they know someone who does. My mother's building announced to all the residents that someone in one of the condos there had been diagnosed and has been self-quarantining for over 2 weeks, and the person they live with was just removed from the unit with symptoms. I think she should be ok - each unit has its own HVAC system so hopefully there's not a lot of contamination between condos, and they have been staying in for the past couple weeks, and being very careful and disinfecting everything when bringing in mail or groceries.

They expanded the criteria to get a test in my county, but even if you're tested and found to be positive, it won't change anything about your treatment - you are to stay home unless you can't breathe to complete a sentence, then go to the hospital. From the accounts we're starting to hear from people who had it, they either have a cough for a couple days and are fine, or they're sicker than they've ever been in their life and still not back to 100% even weeks later. I know they're predicting that 70% of the planet may catch this virus, but I'd really prefer not to...

Rumors

With everyone communicating pretty much solely via social media now, there are so many rumors and things that keep getting passed around. My suggestion is to look at the source and do your own research to verify, though when it seems urgent, few people take the time to do that, in the name of trying to spread the word.

Gas pumps are a huge spreader of COVID-19: There is a post being shared a lot saying someone's friend is a doctor, and they were told at the hospital that lots of people are picking up the virus from gas pump handles, so you should use a paper towel when pumping gas. While I agree those handles are filthy and I always use caution with them, there's really no way to tell exactly what someone touched to pick up those germs. Gas pumps are just as likely as anything else, so just be cautious.

Hospitals want us to make homemade masks for doctors and nurses: I have seen so many people sharing instructions for making homemade fabric face masks. While these are legitimate items that some patients use in certain circumstances, they won't really help in this case where an N95 mask, that filters out particles of a certain size, is needed for medical professionals. Most hospitals won't be able to use your homemade masks. What they really need are N95 masks and other personal protective equipment (PPE) like goggles, gowns, and gloves. Places like mechanics, hardware shops, nail salons, tattoo parlors, labs, and other businesses that may use this type of equipment are encouraged to donate their supply to local hospitals, if needed.

There's a simple way to cure/prevent contracting COVID-19: If it were as simple as gargling vinegar or sucking on a lozenge or drinking de-acidified water or holding your breath every day or whatever the latest thing is, don't you think everyone would be doing that instead of sheltering at home or getting sick? There was one infographic I saw a lot a few weeks ago that Facebook finally started recognizing as untrue and blocking, but I still see others from time to time. Even the actual medical treatments they're researching right now, like repurposing malaria and antiviral drugs, are in an extremely experimental phase, having only been tested in a very small group of people, with no time to study short- and long-term outcomes. So while promising, we can't count on them just yet.

Anything with specific details on who and how the virus infects, or details about a treatment or vaccine: The truth is, we have known about this disease for only a couple months. We can't say that we have hard and fast rates on what ages or underlying conditions are most susceptible, how exactly people get infected, what specific symptoms they will have, etc. The virus just hasn't been studied that long, and outcomes have varied as it's spread, based on the population affected and how local governments have been handling things. Unless you are a doctor or researcher yourself, it's irresponsible to pass along medical information like this.

Stay-At-Home

NBC10

This afternoon the governor announced a stay-at-home order for the largest cities in our state and their surrounding counties, where there have been the most COVID-19 cases. This includes me, but it isn't much different than the previous orders of lockdown and closing all non-life sustaining businesses. I think the difference with this order is that there is some way to enforce it, if someone is out without a good reason. The guidance is to only leave "if someone's life depends on it" (e.g. buying food, medicine, or going to work in an essential job). How would they tell, though? Will police just stop people randomly and ask where they're going, and take them on their word? Or is this an attempt to break up gatherings at parks, etc. as were seen over the past week and weekend?

The goal in enacting this for certain counties is to reduce the spread from these hardest-hit areas to areas with fewer cases. Most states surrounding us are now on shelter-in-place orders, which is pretty much the same thing. However, I just can't imagine that a virus will respect county or state lines...

They also extended the closure of schools for another two weeks, but I wish they would just go ahead and cancel the rest of the year, like some states and most colleges already have. There is no realistic way kids can go back to school and still maintain social distancing. And even if some of these "lockdown" restrictions are lifted, we will have to practice some level of distancing for the foreseeable future, until a vaccine is approved and widely available...

While non-essential businesses are to be closed, many parks are still open, as long as people practice appropriate distancing. I just saw a note that my township is closing all playgrounds in our public parks, and will rope them off with caution tape. This is a good step, unfortunately some kids can't resist a playground! Over the weekend a friend of mine took her kids out to parks they found that specifically did not have playgrounds, just so they wouldn't have to worry about the temptation.

Tokyo also postponed the 2020 Olympics. No new date is set, but they probably won't be held until 2021. So at least we don't have to worry about Akira happening this year...

The Ocho

Somehow, even when you don't actually have to go anywhere on Monday, Sunday nights are still a bummer.

We had another nice weekend at home. We went for walks around our neighborhood, I did lots of laundry, I cooked, and tonight we've been watching ESPN2, which has turned into ESPN 8 "The Ocho" for the time being and is airing weird sports like dodgeball, marble racing, Norwegian death diving, and currently a cross between dodgeball and juggling.

My husband is getting really antsy for a haircut. We do have a set of clippers which I used exactly one time to butcher his hair several years ago. But I watched a couple tutorials and feel like I could give it another shot. I ordered a set of thinning shears that should be here by next weekend, and we'll be in business 💇‍♂️

I started an online grocery order and reserved the next available time slot, next Saturday, but I guess I never confirmed the order so I lost my place. Now the next time available is on Tuesday, 9 days from now. It's ok, we should be fine until then. We're hardly doing anything, so barely burning calories! (Though I have been enjoying our walks outside.)

Over the weekend, several more states and cities announced that they enacted or would be enacting "shelter in place" orders, essentially banning anyone from going out to do anything except work or buy food. I wish they would just order that for our whole state. Even enforcement of the order about "life-sustaining businesses" they announced last week has been delayed, because so many places requested waivers that have to be reviewed. I'm seeing more people taking things more seriously, but then there's still people doing play dates with their kids, or getting together with friends, or just crowding together in stores. I wonder how many people will need to die before they get it...

Italy has now surpassed China in the number of COVID-19 deaths. The new site COVID Act Now calculates the "point of no return" for states to prevent hospital overload. For us, it's next week - 3 months of social distancing will result in an estimated 191,000 deaths and hospital overload within a month, while 3 months of shelter in place would be 5,000 estimated deaths and no overload within the time frame of the calculator. I already know of at least one place (Dallas, TX) where this data was used to inform their decision to shelter in place. The model isn't perfect and it doesn't take long-term into account, but it can help to make quick decisions now to buy some time.

Hopeful

After reading that downer report about the 1-2 million American deaths gave everyone a slap of reality, a lot of people have been asking how long do we have to live like this - we can't just shut down society for the next year and a half. However, the report just accounted for the current situation, and could vary depending on different mitigation measures that might be implemented in the future, like more widespread testing and containment, and the ability to develop better treatments.

Today I read two really hopeful articles that lay out an alternate plan to allow us to buy time. Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance, follows Tomas Pueyo's previous article, and very clearly lays out the current situation, the comparison of mitigation vs. suppression, and the third option of "The Hammer:" short-term extreme distancing measures now, to allow for better tracking and control going forward, as well as time to ramp up testing and tracking, produce the necessary equipment to care for sick people, and potentially develop new and more effective treatments.

A similar article, This Is How We Can Beat the Coronavirus, comes to the same conclusion in a little more succinct terms, and is a little easier to read.

There's also a WhiteHouse.gov petition to enact this proposal as a national policy.

While it seems like my neighborhood is participating in social distancing, as are many of my friends, I'm still hearing and seeing reports of people gathering in large groups, kids playing together, etc. There has been no directive at the national level, and states and municipalities have been handling the outbreak with varying degrees of severity. I feel very lucky to be in a state where strict measures are in place (even if people unfortunately aren't following them, yet 😞).

The IRS extended the deadline for filing income taxes from April 15 to July 15. Luckily, I got ours done a couple weeks ago. Also got our drivers licenses renewed, in preparation for the change to IDs coming later this year. What can I say, I'm just very prepared 🤷‍♀️

Commercials

gothopotam

Listening to the radio this morning, I heard COVID-19 specific ads: liquor stores are closed, but you can still order online from this company; this mobile phone company is helping everyone stay connected; and a PSA about maintaining distance and staying safe. I was wondering when this would happen.

My husband makes TV commercials for a living, and many of their customers are car dealerships and other retail businesses that are now ordered to be closed. But I bet they will shift to advertising more online and essential businesses. TV commercials certainly aren't going anywhere while everyone is trapped inside!

Life Sustaining

I was doing really well today - busy with work, lots of meetings and catching up with people, even showered and did my hair and makeup for the first time in a week. I was making tacos for dinner, as I'd been promising my husband for days, now that I had some fresh ingredients.

They cancelled the state standardized tests for the year, which is a pretty big step and I think a good sign that school will not re-open this school year.

There is now a gas station in Kentucky with gas at $.99/gallon, and it's expected that nationwide gas will be $.99-1.99 soon.

And then, as I stood in the kitchen cooking my ground beef, peppers, and onions, I saw a "breaking news" alert: the governor has ordered all "non-life sustaining" businesses to close their physical locations as of 8 PM tonight. They have a day to get things in order, and starting at midnight Saturday, any that don't comply will be fined and could lose the chance to apply for disaster aid.

This is basically just enforcing what was politely requested a few days ago - only essential businesses should be operating, to keep as many people out of public and contact as possible. I think the problem was that he didn't specify the first time what is considered "essential," so a lot of places stayed open, like video game stores, hobby shops, etc. that really shouldn't have. And with stores open, people had an incentive to go to them and not stay home. With this order comes a very specific list, broken down by category, of what is considered life sustaining: farms and food manufacturing, medical care and supplies, banks, building materials and auto parts (but not car dealerships - so just repair the car you have), grocery stores (but not "specialty" food stores), restaurants (take-out only), newspaper publishing and TV/radio broadcasting, and everything having to do with transportation and utilities and such. There is no specified end date.

I don't know why I'm so shaken and upset by this. It's what should have been done this past week, just enforced more strongly. I think the "life sustaining" part just sounds so ominous. I lost my appetite - too bad about that beautiful looking taco bowl - and am ready to just crawl under a blanket and cry.

Also, the US has more new cases today than Italy. I have a friend who's putting together daily line graphs of new cases by country, and the US line is basically going straight up, overtaking France, and in pretty much the same place Spain was two days ago - so much for flattening the curve! Now, the graphs are not really accurate or scientific, and there could be a number of reasons for this. Maybe the US numbers were artificially low before, and now with more widespread testing we're seeing them rise more quickly - and seeing how bad it really is here. Hopefully all the measures being taken now will be reflected in the graph in the coming weeks...

Mercy and Comfort

Yesterday evening my husband and I went for a walk around our neighborhood. The weather was perfect and it was good to get out. There were quite a few people out walking, jogging, biking, or playing in their yards. Everyone casually crossed the street to avoid each other. That would make a good premise for a video game, actually - avoiding the other people outside by a certain radius.

I tried to have a conversation with some other local relatives about what we should do with my grandmother if a more restrictive lockdown is enacted here. She's in her 90s and lives alone, and doesn't have a smartphone or internet access to order or take care of anything online. Right now we can shop for her and drop things off at her house. If it comes to a point where we aren't allowed out as often or can't buy the groceries she needs, I think it would be best for her to stay with one of us, instead of being by herself for such an extended period of time; not that this has to happen now, but we should plan for it in case it comes up. This turned into a family argument 🤷‍♀️ Hopefully it's at least in people's minds, and if it comes to that, there will have been some thought about it.

My plan for now is to stay at my house (with periodic walks outside). I don't even want to go to the supermarket again. We can order the things we need. We're seeing now that the virus is hitting even younger people very hard, and continuing to mutate. We really don't know anything about it, it's brand new. According to that Imperial College paper, infections in the US will be peaking in May-June, depending on location. (Since I'm in somewhat of a "hotspot," I wonder if that will be sooner here.) I have the luxury - and duty - of being able to stay home through the summer.

Every call for work now starts with a rundown of how is everyone's health, what's the situation in your town, how are you all doing with isolating? We can take the whole first part of a meeting just chatting about virus stuff. I kind of wish we wouldn't - while it's nice to connect, it's also nice to be working as a distraction from everything else going on.

I've been trying to keep up with mentioning policy changes and stuff here too, and I'm sure I'm missing a lot, but yesterday they announced that they would be deploying two military hospital ships, Mercy (west coast) and Comfort (east coast), to help with the coronavirus response - not to treat COVID-19 patients, but to free up capacity in other hospitals. They'll be ready in the next few weeks. They're also talking about setting up military field hospitals for non-coronavirus trauma patients. And they've asked doctors not to perform elective procedures, to keep resources available for the influx of coronavirus patients. The president is also invoking the Defense Production Act, which prioritizes production of necessary supplies (in this case medical supplies, but I guess could be weapons or military stuff in wartime), and I think can kind of force private companies to produce things at the government's request? Kind of like how some liquor and perfume companies have switched over to produce hand sanitizer, and I've seen some companies switch to making N95 masks.

Today China reported zero new cases of the virus!

Little Changes

Here's some of the little things I've started doing in the past few weeks:

• Wipe down everything that can be wiped as soon as we enter the house: keys, phone, bag, etc. (and took the fabric lanyard off my keyring for easier cleaning)
• Shoes are left at the door
• Change clothes immediately
• Wash hands longer and more carefully, multiple times throughout the day
• Stopped wearing my wedding ring (so has my husband, at my suggestion) - it's just one more place for germs to be, and easy to miss cleaning under unless you take your rings on and off every time you wash your hands
• Stopped wearing nail polish (freshly polished nails are ok, but chipped polish can harbor germs)
• Trying to stop biting my nails, which is really hard for me without nail polish, but I'm doing ok so far - nail biting or putting your fingers in your face holes is one of the easiest ways to get infected
• Go around the house at least once a day and wipe down high-touch surfaces: doorknobs, light switches, remotes, phones, keyboards, etc., as well as counter tops, tables, and other surfaces.
• Doing one load of laundry a couple times a week, instead of a couple loads once a week
• Mail and packages are either discarded immediately, or left in a safe place in the basement for a couple days before opening (the virus can live on cardboard for up to 24 hours, and on hard surfaces for 2-3 days)

Today I made an actual run to the supermarket to get the things that weren't included in my pick-up order yesterday - it was my first time inside a building other than my house in a week! I went to a different store, right when it opened. People were lined up outside and started streaming in when the doors were unlocked. I brought a few disinfecting wipes and wiped down my entire cart. Everyone walked through the store nervously and tried to keep their distance. I got there at opening for the best chance of supplies, but there was still a lot out of stock or that I couldn't find - half the produce department was empty, as well as much of the cheese/dairy area. Many staple items like rice, pasta, cereal, etc. were limited to 1-2 per customer. I overheard a store employee telling a woman that their orders are based on forecasting from the previous year. As long as supply chains aren't too disrupted, it sounds like supplies should keep coming and stores will eventually replenish.

It sounds like more mobile testing sites have been popping up around the area. I know of two local to me connected with local healthcare systems, and I'm seeing articles about others in other areas. It sounds like they're just getting set up though, and aren't fully operational yet. The US has also closed its border with Canada. (I wonder what this means for little enclave towns that require border crossings to get to the other side of the street... Not that people should be going out, I guess.)

My county is now the first in our state to move to a "community spread model" in contact tracing and not updating where or how the virus was contracted. I don't know exactly what this means, but it seems important. I know they were previously tracing and following everyone who may have had close contact with an infected person, and this was usually the only way you could get tested. Maybe now there will be more widespread testing if they acknowledge it could be anywhere in the community?

Following the discussion in my previous post, people are becoming despondent - and it hasn't even been a week yet - just figuring the hospitals will implode and 2 million people will die because people won't be able to stay far enough apart for long enough. Most people are still expecting that this is all going to blow over in a month or two. We even finished our summer intern interviews today, and talked about plans to bring someone in starting in June.

Reality

For the past few days, I've been feeling really good, really comfortable. I was eating and sleeping well, and enjoying my hiatus at home. We're all getting into social distancing, we'll beat this thing!

Report 9: Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)
to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand

But earlier this week, I started hearing about this report released from Imperial College London. It probably led to the ramping up of the social distancing messaging from the government and the UK's sudden position change on taking precautions now. In a nutshell, as broken down by my very smart friend who is a PhD and professor of public health:

• If we do nothing, they estimate 2.2M Americans will die, including nearly 10% of Americans over 70.
• If we practice pretty extreme social distancing, that could be reduced to about 1.1M Americans
• No matter what we do, cases will vastly overrun hospital capacity. This is not accounted for in death toll estimates (e.g. someone with a heart attack who is rushed to a hospital overwhelmed by COVID-19)
• Until there’s a vaccine, any loosening of social distancing will result in a new outbreak. Maximum we could loosen maybe for a month, which would have to be followed by another two months of strict social distancing measures, or we get back to worst case again.
• Taken together, conclusion is under current circumstances we will have to social distance with schools closed, quarantine of cases, and home isolation for 12-18 months until vaccine is available.
• On the positive side:
• This is just a model - probably a good one, but could be wrong
• Treatments (like antiviral medication) could help and change things a lot
• Widespread testing may allow for alternate strategies that are much more palatable

And my own positive thoughts: how quickly does time fly? I find stuff in my cabinets that expired years ago, that I feel like I just bought. I can't believe I've been married almost 14 years, that I've lived in my home almost 9, that I'm creeping ever closer to 40. How quickly could a year of isolation pass?

Anyway, now I'm ready to just curl into a ball and cry again, which I thought I was past...

Mourning

I've said many times that I'm in such a privileged place when it comes to social distancing and all the other mitigation measures that are going on right now. I don't depend on customers or tips, I don't have school schedules to worry about, I really don't have any major plans set in stone this year (we were planning to take a vacation, but that can easily be cancelled). But the hardship of all these cancellations is becoming more and more apparent, and it's perfectly ok to mourn.

Many of the students I volunteer with are seniors in high school this year. In addition to the competition at the conclusion of our business program, they were looking forward to prom, graduation, and moving away to start college. It's now very unlikely that anything else will happen for the remainder of this school year, and who knows how this will impact the start of the next?

I mentor a couple students from my college. One is a senior and we spoke last week as she was on her way home due to the college closing down through spring break. It's now closed for the remainder of the semester and all classes have moved online. She is an art major specializing in metalworking, and worried about being able to graduate if she can't make it to the metal studio on campus. She was looking forward to walking in the graduation ceremony. She's concerned about her apartment at school, and the expense of paying rent if she won't be staying there. She was planning to work for a while and save up for grad school, but what kind of job will she be able to get while everything is shut down?

People are posting about ruined birthday plans (I know we're invited to at least one now cancelled party), bar mitzvahs, and even weddings. Trips of a lifetime. Things they've been planning a long time for. Heck, we're in the middle of interviewing summer interns and I wonder if it's even worth it, since my office is closed, and even last week access was limited for "non-business critical" visitors and contractors.

I've said it before - things shut down for various reasons all the time: wars, natural disasters, disease. I haven't personally lived through any of that, so I don't know the logistics of how it's handled. Is the year considered a wash? Will they go back to school for a couple extra months somehow? Will everyone just understand, "Oh, you were the class of 2020, no problem, we see why your transcript is incomplete?"

Virtual Engagement

(Updated May 2022!) You may be new to working remotely, and may be looking for ways to keep your team engaged while physically distanced. Having years of experience working in geographically distributed teams, and leading a team devoted to virtual colleague engagement for the past few years, I have a number of icebreaker activities we've used that you might find helpful. In addition to the below, it's important to do things that will foster virtual "collisions" (those random conversations when you run into someone in the hallway or overhear something from your desk). For example, if you have the means, set up a casual message board or chat channel for non-business topics, even if conversations happen asynchronously.

Quick questions to answer:

• What is your favorite ice cream flavor?
• What was the best or worst vacation you ever took, where and why
• In one word, describe high school
• What is your least favorite food?
• What is your favorite candy to receive trick-or-treating?
• What is your favorite Thanksgiving food?
• What New Year's resolution have you stuck to?
• If you could live in any period in history what would it be?
• Share your funniest holiday story or holiday mishap
• If money and time were no object, where would you travel, with whom, and why?
• What has been your favorite moment in the current month?
• What's your favorite meal (or a meal you enjoyed recently)? (feel free to swap recipes afterward)
• What's your favorite year and why?
• What talent do you have that you wish you could use at work?
• What is your favorite vacation location?
• What I did on my summer vacation
• What is a common thing that you have never done? (Fly, change a tire, etc.)
• What is the scariest thing you have done for fun?
• What topic do you know a lot of random trivia about?
• If you were sponsored by a brand, what would you want it to be?
• If you could attend any concert with any performer, living or dead, what would it be?
• Roses & Thorns: list one accomplishment from the past week (personal or work-related), and one thing that didn't go well or area where you need help
• Skill Set: everyone shares one skill or talent they would like to develop - can be work-related or personal
• 18 & Under: everyone share one accomplishment you had before you turned 18
• One Word And I'm In: start meeting  by having everyone pick one word to fill in the sentence “I’m __ and I’m in," e.g.: “I’m caffeinated and I’m In,” “I’m fired-up and I’m In, “I’m a-little-bit-tired-but-ready and I’m In.”

More involved verbal icebreakers:

• Intro 140: introduce yourself in 140 characters or less (this was previously the Twitter character limit)*
• Tell a story about your name (first or last; origin, meaning, namesakes, funny mix-ups, pronunciation, etc.)
• Three Books: (could also be movies, series on Netflix, etc.)
• list your favorite book/book you recommend to others
• last book you read
• next book you plan to read
• Background Story*
• Each member submits a personal story in advance
• Facilitator removes identifying information and shares stories prior to meeting
• Team tries to guess who each story belongs to
• Word Cinquains (about your job, something about yourself, or any other prompt) *
• Put together a trivia game about the current month, an upcoming holiday, a country or state, etc.
• Find 10 Things In Common: find 10 things everyone in the group has in common (simple things like body parts or clothing don't count)
• Snapshot*
• Prior to the meeting, everyone shares a photo of something within view of their workspace (something on your desk, the view out a window, a pet, a piece of furniture, etc.), e.g. in a Teams thread
• Discuss the photos during the meeting
• Pancakes vs. Waffles: make decisions collectively as a team; the name is indicative of the “either or” choice you are making
• team has to decide on whether the world is going to keep pancakes or waffles, and the other is to be obliterated from existence; anyone can advocate for a favorite , ultimately you must have a vote of majority 
• after one option is eliminated, you add a new competitor, e.g. game may become Waffles vs Pumpkins, and then Waffles vs Puppies, and then Puppies vs Kittens, and then Kittens vs Romantic Relationships, etc.
• the longer you play, the more intense the conversation gets and the more team members will share their values; game mechanics are helpful for virtual team building because the initial conversation of Pancakes vs Waffles is low stakes, and it gradually becomes more personal as you get to later stages
• GIF War
• In Teams channel, a post is started with a certain topic
• Everyone replies with a GIF
• Like your favorite(s), the favorite response wins

If you have access to web meeting tools for sharing:

• Create and share "fun fact" infographics about yourselves*
• Create and share trading cards* 

If you have access to web meeting tools for interactivity:

• Virtual version of the "Switch Sides If" game using annotation tools in your meeting software 
• Share a grid of numbers, participants select a number using annotation tool, answer corresponding question 
• Nobody is like me…
• One after the other, everybody has to finish the sentence “Nobody is like me…”. For example: “Nobody is like me, a sports enthusiast and goes to the gym at least 5 times a week.”  Or: “Nobody is like me, already been to South Africa on a safari.” The teammates give a hand sign to express their consent (thumb up) or negation (thumb down).
• Display a slide with thumbs up/thumbs down symbols and use annotation tool to mark agreement/disagreement
• Who's Done That? Display a page of things that people may have done, participants use annotation tools to add their names to the ones applicable to them, then can discuss
• One Word Description:
• Facilitator says a phrase like "Team Culture;" participants use meeting annotation tools to type one word that describes the term for them
• Other topic suggestions: working from home, getting things done, your current living situation, pets, springtime, cooking at home

If attendees can appear on camera during the meeting:

• Thought Breakers - select prompts from the "action oriented" category with cameras on
• Find a rainbow: from your surroundings, find something in every color of the rainbow and share on camera (or for larger groups, assign people a specific color and then share them in rainbow order)
• Can You Hear Me Now
• Speaker uses random image generator to select an image
• Speaker describes it to attendees so they can draw it successfully, using only geometric shapes (e.g. can say "draw a large circle and three equidistant triangles," but not "write the letter E")
• Attendees share their drawings on camera and see how they compare to the original
• Leader has an object, says and acts out what they're going to do with the object, then "passes" it to someone else, who says and acts out what they're doing with the object, etc.
• Sell It
• At the start of your meeting, ask each attendee to grab any item on their desk, but don’t explain why. If they ask, let them know they will find out soon. 
• Once each attendee has an item in their hand, explain that they are now going to try to sell it to the other members. They can set the price and have one minute to deliver a sales pitch and one minute to answer questions.
• After all pitches are made, attendees vote (either by hand or with a polling tool) to select one item they would “buy.” 
• The person who gets the most votes to purchase their product wins.
• Virtual Background Fun
• Instead of just sharing a picture, use the camera's virtual background to place yourself somewhere interesting (a favorite vacation spot, scene from a favorite TV show or movie, someplace you'd like to visit in the future, etc.)
• 10 Second Objects
• Choose a theme (e.g. the fair, modes of transportation, items starting with a certain letter, characters from a certain story, object in the room you are in, etc.)
• Count down 10 seconds, then everyone on camera forms their body into the shape of an object associated with that theme
• Attendees try to guess what each person is - bonus if it's something nobody else had thought of

* Requires pre-work for participants

First Grocery Pick-Up

I actually love grocery shopping, so I've never used any of the shopping/pick-up services offered by my local stores before. But I see the Instacart shoppers rolling through the store with their carts full of organized bags, and new reserved parking spots for pick-up, so I know a lot of people use them.

I placed my first grocery order on Sunday, thinking I would probably be able to pick up on Monday. A number of things were understandably out of stock, but I was able to check almost everything off my list. However, when completing my purchase, the earliest pick-up time was Tuesday afternoon - almost 48 hours after my order! So I've been eagerly awaiting fresh produce for the last few days.

Today, about an hour before my scheduled pick-up, someone called me from the store to let me know my order might not be available at the scheduled time, and they would call to let me know when it was ready. Oh no! How much later are we talking - hours? Days? ...No, maybe like 30 minutes 😂 And, she warned me, although they just got a shipment in, some items may not be available. I understand, though I hadn't even ordered any of the hard-hit stuff like canned goods or cleaning supplies. I told her I was mostly hoping to get the fresh and produce items, and she said that shouldn't be a problem.

Nobody ever called me back, so I finally called in (didn't want to bother them since they were busy) and was told my order was ready. I drove over to the store, surprised to see as many people out as I did (especially considering this was mid-day on a Tuesday). Per the order pick-up protocol, I called to tell them I was there and which numbered parking spot I was in, then popped the trunk and waited. About 15 minutes later, I got a call back to see if I was still out there, waiting for my order. Yes, I was.

Shortly after that, a very nice young guy came out and put the bags in my trunk, which I thought would be the end of the transaction. But then he proceeded to stand outside my (barely cracked open) window and tell me about all the things that were out of stock - like half my order - and hand me a paper receipt, and give me another thing that I had to sign and return. So much for "contactless!"

I wiped everything down when I got home and tried to see what recipes I could salvage with the few items I got. I think after this experience, I'll take my chances going to the store myself right when it opens for best availability, clean my cart, and use self check-out. Will try tomorrow morning...

Side note, I also saw a surprising number of people wearing masks while out! One woman had hers pulled down under her chin - pointless. I saw another guy fully masked up, driving a car by himself 🤷‍♀️ If you're not even going to wear them right, you don't deserve to have them at all when there's doctors and patients who actually need these supplies...

Loss of Liberty

Four days ago they went from just encouraging everyone to wash their hands, to locking down my whole county. Then it went to the whole state. Now some states are imposing evening curfews, and San Francisco is about to implement a 24 hour lockdown for "at least" three weeks. In my first post here, I said I imagined this situation would evolve similarly to European countries in WWII, where things changed little by little until one day they were being ruled by the Nazis and sending people off to death camps. I just didn't think the changes would come quite so rapidly

The 24 hour lockdown isn't actually much different than how I've been living my life for the past week anyway - only going out to work or patronize "essential businesses" (medical, grocery, gas, banks, as well as shelters and media outlets), it's just that now it's a mandate instead of a request.

How will they enforce this? If people are out and about, how will they prove they're going to one of the approved places, and who will be checking this? Also, how will they be checked without putting both the checker and traveler in close contact?

While I am not a fan of the loss of liberty and think this will be the thing that causes people to riot (it's a good thing they're testing it in liberal San Francisco, rather than somewhere more conservative, with more guns), it's basically forcing people to do what they've been asked to do for the past week. Even now I'm seeing people making plans for get-togethers and talking about living their life as usual, though fewer people than a couple days ago.

I hope doing this 1) shows other areas that this is serious and this could be them, and 2) can be enforced for the full duration so that the benefits might be evident in the data about rate of infection.

Unfortunately, after just a couple days here, I'm seeing so many people who are really struggling with mental health - upset over the loss of income and cancellation of plans they'd been looking forward to, and just dealing with anxiety in general.

Other changes I've seen: due to everyone's panic-buying of toilet paper, cleaning supplies, and canned goods last week, many stores are having trouble keeping it in stock or imposing limits. Will this become the new normal? Lining up before stores open to get access to a rationed supply of staple items? I'm hoping not. Once people realize the food will keep coming, they'll hopefully work through their stockpiles and not overbuy so much. I was talking to one of my Wuhan colleagues and she said people reacted similarly there at first, which makes me feel better, that we're not just being "typical American consumers."

Money Laundering

Effective yesterday, the tollbooths on our state's toll highway are not accepting cash or credit card payment. If you don't have a transponder in your car, it will take a photo of your license plate and send you a bill. (I got this already on a toll bridge they changed recently - it made me feel like I was doing something wrong as I drove through, and then I got a bill later.) Will this put tollbooth operators out of business once its proven that they're not necessary?

I wanted to order food delivery for dinner, and asked on Facebook about tipping the delivery driver without cash, since I know some services pocket tips made through the app by reducing the driver's base pay. It looks like currently, Door Dash, Postmates, Grub Hub, Uber Eats, and Instacart pass tips to their workers. Some of the other grocery and take-out apps may not. But do a little research for the latest information. And please do tip your delivery people, they're out there doing what you [responsibly] don't want to, and not getting paid much for it. They may also be out of work from some other industry that isn't running. So be considerate.

My husband sent me this photo: while at work, he wiped down all his cash 😂

The Great Pause

Haven't people been saying for years that they are too busy, overloaded with activities, overscheduled? I am looking back at my Google calendar, and there is at least one appointment, activity, reminder, etc. every day - not to mention my regular job and its days full of meetings. Between me and my husband, we have so many activities, we're rarely home together to just hang out. So we cram our quality time into a "date night" or busy weekend. And we don't even have kids and all their accompanying scheduling!

What have I done just in the few days we've been practicing social distancing?

• Spent quality time with my husband, where neither of us was worried about getting work done or other obligations
• Went for a walk around my neighborhood, which we haven't done in years
• Cooked more at home
• "Slept in" (I am usually up at 5:30... Now allowing myself to sleep to a more reasonable 7 AM, or later!)
• Reconnected with friends I usually just follow through social media posts
• Spoke more to family members on the phone

I saw this time referred to as "The Great Pause," and I hope that's what it turns out to be. Yes, there will be people working harder than they ever have before - people in the medical field, of course, as well as everyone it takes to keep things humming along: the supermarkets and pharmacies, delivery drivers, manufacturers of all those supplies and foods, farmers, the people developing and manufacturing treatments and vaccines, first responders, utility companies. If everyone else who has the luxury of pausing can take it seriously and stay home and away from others, we have the best possible chance of keeping the most people safe. 

What are some other benefits of The Great Pause?

• Travel pollution should be greatly reduced (I heard smog is already significantly lower in Chinese cities)
• We can re-evaluate our workaholic lifestyle
• Parents can really connect with their kids
• It sheds light on many Americans' basic needs for security (paid sick leave, insurance coverage, food assistance, etc.)
• Everyone will really be ready to party, go out, travel, and patronize all those places we haven't been able to support once it's safe to do so!

...What else?

Lockdown (Statewide)

This afternoon our governor locked down our entire state, effective at midnight tonight. All nonessential businesses must close. This is good, as it was being done county by county before. However, the governor says he's not going to "go after" business that remain open, like childcare centers or places of entertainment. There is apparently a racetrack somewhere in the middle of the state that held races this past weekend and says they won't be cancelling events. So if they aren't going to get in any trouble for that ... I hope their patrons are responsible enough to distance themselves. (Since I don't have high hopes for that, I hope everyone else is responsible enough to distance themselves from race fans.)

The governor also said he doesn't want to implement a curfew as some other states have, because he would actually like people to stay home 24 hours a day.

One thing that was missing from his declaration was provisions like I mentioned earlier from a neighboring state, allowing for protections for people who can't work during this time. I watched his press conference via live stream, and there were many comments from angry people understandably concerned about their income during this time.

I'd like to find someplace that is aggregating all these declarations and policies state by state, so we can compare. I mean, what I'd really like is for this to be taken care of nationally, instead of piecemeal by municipalities, counties, and states, but...

My office sends out weekly e-mails about all the activities happening at our site. Usually it's things like speakers, opportunities to volunteer, construction updates, blood drives, and other things related to our business. This week, the articles include how to report a COVID-19 diagnosis, services on site that are closing, how to set up your home workspace and work remotely, and tips on managing stress 😕

Supply Chain

So far today I've seen at least one neighboring state put executive orders in place to prohibit utility shut-offs and evictions, reopen closed medical facilities, and allow out-of-state medical practitioners to practice there. In our state, workers impacted by closures (either unable to work, or their business has closed) can also file for unemployment. These are all recommendations I've seen suggested at a national level, so I imagine we'll be seeing more of this. School districts have also organized to ensure students who relied on school for their daily meals will still have access.

Elco van Staveren

For the last week or so, everyone has been getting inundated with e-mails from basically any company they've ever communicated with, advising what steps they are taking to mitigate virus transmission. Mostly it's made me wonder why places apparently weren't cleaning and sanitizing before. With the recent prohibitions on dine-in services in many areas, we've been continuing to get revised messages from restaurants offering take-out or delivery service, or some just closing down temporarily (like the Melting Pot - I guess it's too hard to offer fondue to go - I'd still be up for a meal kit though, like I suggested!) At least one restaurant whose list I'm on has launched a "marketplace" to give customers access to purchase individual ingredients from their wholesale market, which I think is also a great idea!

However, some e-mails I got today had a bit of a troubling undertone, saying things like, "While I can’t predict what will happen in the coming weeks..." Especially coming from my meal kit delivery service, which never had any physical contact to begin with, this is a little bit concerning. Do they see something on the horizon? How are their supply chains looking?

Some of my favorite YouTubers have caught up to the point where their content is now impacted by COVID-19. The Try Guys published a video about preparing their staff to work remotely, and what they did at home on their first few days of social distancing. They're acting very responsibly, and considering their target audience, I think this sets a good example. Kathryn of Do It On A Dime shared a "typical" cleaning and meal prep video, with explicit references to "sanitizing" your kitchen, and the lack of groceries in many stores.

Sounds Like a Plan

This weekend my father in law stopped by. We wouldn't let him in, and spoke to him through the door. Not that we don't want to let him in, but for all we know we could be infected, and don't want to get him sick. He later e-mailed us: "There are 13 million people in our state. The number positive for COVID-19 is 60." I replied with a very comprehensive response about the lack of testing, the long contagious period while asymptomatic, and the fact that the numbers double every few days, and said we need to practice social distancing so we don't overwhelm the healthcare system. His next response: "Sounds like a plan!" 👍

Yesterday the governor ordered that as of today, all restaurants must offer take-out meals only, no seating inside (hooray). Some states have implemented overnight curfews, from 8 or 10 PM to 5 or 6 AM. The CDC is recommending gatherings of no more than 50 people, and I'm starting to see timelines more like 2 months than 2 weeks. My senator has been posting daily updates, and yesterday's included, "Depending on how successful social distancing is, and barring a medical breakthrough, this crisis is likely to last at least 4 months and as much as a year," which is honestly the most realistic timeframe I've seen given so far.

My boss e-mailed everyone this morning to make sure we're all ok and able to work from home.

Rebecca Arendell Franks

I've been reading some posts and blogs written by Americans living in Wuhan, and can better understand what my colleagues there have been telling me about their situation. They were indeed originally allowed to send one person per household every three days to get groceries and supplies. Then that was reduced to once per week, and now they can't leave their apartment complexes at all. I'm not sure what the living situation is like throughout the city, but it seems like most people live in large complexes where they've now implemented online ordering and grocery delivery right to their building or block, and other than that nobody is allowed outside for any reason; some buildings or complexes even have locks placed on the doors or gates. Just based on conditions here, with most people in single-family homes or at least smaller units than these complexes, I don't see how they could implement that. Also the essential people still do need to be able to get out and work. I watched a short documentary last night about the situation in Wuhan, and it looked like medical staff were actually being housed in lodging away from their families - I don't know if Americans are pragmatic enough to allow that to happen...

This is War

I've already made the comparison between this global pandemic and a world war. This weekend, I started noticing others were, as well. New York's Mayor de Blasio said, "This is the equivalent of a war already." States are looking at bringing in the Army Corps of Engineers to help retrofit existing buildings into medical facilities.

I read an article this weekend about the attitude in Italy, which is now fully locked down, and some of the slogans and things that were being used online. One roughly translated to this, which I've since seen going around US social media:

More troubling, there have also been so many comparisons and breakdowns of this situation by country, that it's becoming like a competition or war in that way, as well. Comparisons among the first three hot-spots, China, Italy, and Iran. Comparisons between the spread of cases among European countries. So many comparisons between Italy and the US, as we seem to be on Italy's trajectory if we don't take drastic measures now. Countries shutting boarders and banning travel between them (which, I agree, people shouldn't be traveling around at this time), and countries sending exchange students and visitors home (which seems cruel, if you're sending them into a worse situation than the one they left). A friend is hosting a German exchange student, who is being sent home this week to a town under quarantine.

At this point, the entire planet is in this together. We need the same limited supplies to test and care for the sick, and as we've seen, you can't lock down the spread of this disease. I wish we were more unified in fighting against it, and less competitive. Just because you eradicate it in your country, doesn't mean someone won't come in from somewhere else and reintroduce it. If nothing else, maybe this will make up for the lack of medals to compare if the Olympics aren't held this summer...

I'm Chillin at Home

Today seemed to be the day of forgetting everything we just learned yesterday about social distancing. While a lot of people in my social network seem to be all for it, there are some (including some of those very same people) who continue to post photos of dinners out, go on vacation, and make plans for get-togethers. This all is going to last at a minimum for a couple weeks, and more likely for a few months, so everyone really needs to get on board now.

A number of states today ordered bars and restaurants to close or offer take-out only. I wish they would do that in my state. The below screenshot was posted on Facebook last night by a local bar - look how crowded! Why would they even share that?! Anthony Fauci of the NIH made the rounds on TV today to urge people, especially young people, to take social distancing more seriously, especially in communities where the virus is already spreading (like mine!). More things are being closed and cancelled, and hopefully that gives people less incentive to go out. I'm also seeing more references to the fact that this may not peak until April or May, and at least one governor has said they wouldn't be surprised if schools didn't reopen this year.

Facebook screenshot

I know people want to support these local businesses, and I think this is just the time where people will have to get creative with that. Maybe this means your waitstaff become delivery drivers. Maybe you put together meal kits for customers to cook at their own homes (I would love a meal kit from some of my favorite restaurants!). People have also been recommending buying a restaurant gift card now, so they have the money, and using it later when this is all over. Any other ideas?

Speaking of food, I placed my first ever grocery pick-up order today. I actually love grocery shopping, so I'd never looked into all the pick-up and delivery options out there. I asked on Facebook what people thought of the various services, and got some good feedback. For now, I am going to try Giant Direct, where I can place an order with my local Giant supermarket and they will put it right in my car at the designated time, with no human interaction needed. Most of the other services (like Instacart and Shipt, for example) require an annual membership fee, so if this works well I'm happy to just pay a small fee per order, and continue shopping from my usual store. What I didn't realize was that I wouldn't be able to schedule my order for 48 hours - I was hoping to pick it up tomorrow. Oh well, one more day of soup packets before we get some fresh food in here 🥗

First Weekend

Washington Post simulation
green = healthy, orange = sick, purple = recovered

The Washington Post's Coronavirus Simulator is the best illustration I've seen yet of the benefits of extreme social distancing. The simulations will actually run differently every time you view them, but the result is clear: social distancing is effective; the more, the better. I am still seeing restaurants seating people, friends traveling, and more people than before claiming this is a hoax. I seriously don't understand - it's happening in our own country already, and in first-world European nations that people in the US are familiar with. It's not some far-off thing or an election year plot. I guess if you can believe the earth is flat, you can believe anything...

Our first socially distanced weekend was pretty nice, all things considered. My husband got some freelance work done. We watched a couple movies ("Frozen 2" and "Uncut Gems" - I know, two very different ends of the spectrum!). We went for a nice walk around the neighborhood - casually crossing the street when someone else approached. I made some really good mac and cheese with chicken. My appetite is somewhat back, but I'm still not really feeling like 3 square meals a day - more like one, and maybe a snack later.

Things changed so quickly this past week - literally from day to day. I will be interested to see what the coming weeks bring, and if we can settle into this new routine of isolation. Now that the county where my husband works is also on lockdown, we're expecting his office may close and he could work from home (it's not super convenient, but it's sort of possible). Hopefully this is the end of any new closures or restrictions for a while, as we wait to see how big the tidal wave of COVID-19 is as it starts to crash around us...

Please Stay Home!

Source: Dear Pandemic

For many, yesterday was the first "official" day of social distancing. My county was locked down, then schools were closed at the state level, and as of today, neighboring counties are also being locked down except for "essential" services. And I've seen a lot of people organizing playdates, going out for drinks, asking what restaurants and stores are open, offering babysitting services, etc. Please, I know it's no fun, but refrain from doing that! Otherwise, you're undoing all the good that sacrifices like cancelling sports and closing Disney World are meant to do. You'll have to just socialize with the people in your household (hope you like them!).

There's been a great article going around, Social Distancing: This is Not a Snow Day. Please don't consider this an extended break from work or school, a time to get together with your friends or go to the movies or hang out at the mall. The government hasn't gone as far as the total lockdown and quarantine that has been used in China, but they could. At this time, you still have freedom of movement, and can go outside, get supplies, or go to work at a private office if you have to. That could be taken away in an attempt to control the spread of this virus, so please don't ruin it for everyone by making bad choices. If you have the ability and luxury to work from home, and order in what you need, please, for the greater good, do so!

In other news, guess what, the stuff they said about tests in yesterday's Rose Garden address was false. It was a surprise to Google that they were supposed to be working on a diagnostic site for patients. Verily, Alphabet's (Google's parent company) life sciences research company, was working on something for healthcare providers, but can switch over to make something for the public instead. But they are just rolling it out in the Bay Area, for testing, it still wouldn't be broadly available for some time. And then there's the problem of not having enough testing supplies, especially reagent (the substance that causes the chemical reaction in the test). Most reagent comes from Spain and Germany, and those places are in crisis too, plus the product is in high demand all over the world. So for all these reasons, they're being very restrictive about who even gets tested, and we probably only know the tip of the iceberg.

My biggest concern right now is that cases are going to continue increasing at a fast pace for the next couple weeks, due to the long asymptomatic period of this disease. We won't be able to see for a few weeks if the social distancing we're doing now has had an effect. And I could foresee people getting frustrated, saying, "See, it doesn't matter that we've closed schools and are staying home!" and start living life as usual again. So I think the next awareness campaign, now that we've drilled #flattenthecurve and social distancing into people's heads, will be something around the time it will take to see a change in the curve...

National Emergency

The president just declared a national emergency, waiving a lot of regulations, and is telling every hospital to activate their disaster plan. He claims testing will be greatly expanded, but only to people with certain symptoms. Anthony Fauci, head of the NIH, referred to the goal of flattening the curve. They also waived interest on federal student loans until further notice, and the government is purchasing oil reserves while prices are low right now.

It sounds like some new drive-through testing centers will be in Wal-Mart and Target parking lots - as if they weren't already a mess 😂

Here's what bothered me about this press conference: many people came to the podium to speak, and they all gripped the sides of the lectern. Stop touching everything! Some people even shook hands! (One did the elbow-bump.) I saw a guy in the background scratching his face.

During his speech, Trump said "this will pass through," and later that "it will wash through, it will flow through," as told to him by "doctors," and that he thinks in a few weeks that will prove true. Then later, talking about the effects of the disease, kept saying elderly people "have not done well." Really reassuring. When asked about the known infected person he came in contact with recently (leading others in his party to self-isolate for 14 days), he said he had no symptoms and would not be isolating. The point of self-isolating is to see if you develop symptoms within the 14 days, so... good luck, White House staffers.

Also, schools in my entire state are closed now. That's good, it was being done district by district (or county, in my case), it's better to have a blanket decision. We also learned today that my student business program will not be continuing for this year - there is just no good way to do it virtually in a way that everyone would be able to participate. We're meeting with our student leadership team tonight to break the news to them, and hopefully something can be done to at least culminate the program - we should find out more in the coming weeks.

The last time I saw some of my students - probably the last time I'll ever see most of them, as many will be graduating and going to college.

A Bowl of Noodles

Yesterday after they announced our county would be on lockdown starting today, everyone went out and panicked at the supermarkets. I'm not sure why, because they will be allowed to keep operating. Friends posted pictures of the decimated shelves. And it wasn't even just here - a friend across the country shared a picture from her Costco, they had everyone in a single line all the way to the back of the store, and directed them to cash registers as they opened. (The photos here are from a friend, from two different stores.)

   

I'm just settling in for a long quarantine, and hoping that utilities, food service, medical facilities, and other essentials can keep up during this time. Last night I saw that an EMT in my area was diagnosed with COVID-19, leading to the quarantine of 22 fire and EMS personnel. This is exactly what we don't need happening! At least if people are staying home, there will hopefully be fewer accidents and other emergencies for them to have to deal with...

If you are a person who can stay home for a prolonged period, I think it is your duty at this time to do so (and again, I know this comes with some privilege - but if we are counting on others to keep things running through this, then the least everyone else can do is sequester themselves at home as much as possible). I know it's disappointing - your favorite sport has been cancelled or postponed, your graduation is up in the air, your concert was rescheduled - but by practicing social distancing and impeccable hygiene for as long as possible, we have the best chance of coming out the other side of this with somewhat of a sense of normalcy.

In other news, after days of no appetite, I ate a bowl of noodles today for lunch! (However, if my appetite stays like this, I'll have no problem getting through a quarantine with limited food supplies...)