Thursday, July 30, 2020

150,000

As of yesterday, the US reached 150,000 coronavirus deaths, with the majority of "hot spots" in Texas and Florida. We are recording one death per minute, hospitals are running out of resources, and medical professionals are getting burned out, and discouraged when they continue to see people in their communities not taking proper precautions against infection.

Also this week, a short video featuring a group called "America's Frontline Doctors" went viral after the president shared it. It was a bunch of people wearing white coats (are they all doctors? I could get a white coat and say some stuff...) and spreading misinformation about COVID-19. The video was quickly removed from social media sites, but more people saw it in less time than that "Plandemic" documentary a couple months ago.

I'm not sure this video will do as much damage, though, because it's hard to take seriously when one of the key speakers is a "doctor" who also claims that medical conditions are caused by having sex with demons in your dreams, and alien DNA is used to make medicine... 🙄 The memes are pretty great, as well as some good satire pieces - check out Aliens Issue Statement Asserting That Sex with Them Does Not Spread the Coronavirus and The Joy of Sex (with Demons)

She invoked the name of Jesus as she claimed Facebook's servers would go down until her videos were restored

Monday, July 27, 2020

Return to Costco

I went to Costco today for the first time since March 4. There was meat now! Actually most things appeared to be in stock (though I didn't look at the cleaning supplies section), and I was able to get everything on my list.

I went about 20 minutes after they opened, and it wasn't especially busy, though it's been as crowded as it ever was most of the time when I drive past. Everyone there was wearing a mask - one guy had his pulled under his nose, but he was off to the side and maybe had pulled it down to speak on the phone? Like most other places, stickers marked spacing for customers, and big signs reminded us to keep 6 feet apart. Most people were very good about spreading out, or waiting until someone was out of the way before moving in.

Plexiglas partitions separated cashiers from customers. There was a little hole in the shield, which I used to hand my membership card through. Then the cashier told me, "We're not allowed to touch your cards." I must have missed a sign about that somewhere.

Leaving the store, there's still a guy checking off receipts, though he doesn't take it from you or actually draw a line down the receipt like they used to.

Speaking of touchless activities, I got gas yesterday (second time since March... was finally down to 1/4 tank), and the gas pump did not ask for my zip code after swiping my credit card. I assume they've been reprogrammed like this to avoid contact with the buttons.

The one thing I really noticed I missed was the ability to smile at people. I didn't realize how much I relied on smiling! I put on my mask before getting out of my car, and before I could open my door, a woman opened her passenger door next to me, and I tried to smile to indicate, "It's ok, I can wait to get out," but I don't know if that was communicated. Then I wanted to smile at the employee checking membership cards at the door. I found myself smiling at other customers as we waited for each other to pass. And even at the check-out line, a baby in the cart in front of me was smiling at me and pointing at something in my cart, and I couldn't smile back like I usually do to kids. I ended up waving 😃

And now for sports...

Elbow bumps and "raising the roof" to celebrate in the dugout
Major League Baseball started their season last week, with empty stadiums, cardboard cutouts fans paid to have placed in the seats, and piped in audience cheering sound effects... and already a team is locked down and games are being cancelled because multiple players have tested positive for coronavirus.

The NBA is playing in a "bubble" based in Disney World, with nobody allowed in or out ... Except a couple players have already left (I heard one went to pick up take-out food without thinking, and one was at a strip club!), and found themselves under quarantine when they returned!

Over 7500 kids (probably underestimated) were diagnosed with COVID-19 in Tennessee.

And in the midst of all this, people are still talking about sending their kids back to school either full or part time, thinking this weird environment will be better for them than staying home, and even recognizing that schools will probably be shut back down shortly after reopening.

We really need to reconsider that shut it down, start over, do it right proposal. Andy Slavitt posted a great thread on Twitter about how the US could get things under control in just 4-6 weeks with:

  1. Universal mask wearing
  2. Closing hot-spots (bars, restaurants, churches, transit, etc.)
  3. Prohibiting interstate travel and international travel into the US
  4. Set up hotels to allow people to quarantine away from their families at no cost

Saturday, July 25, 2020

Do It Right

I don't want to say "I told you so," but I came across a couple articles today that echo things I've been saying for months...

Photo by Polina Tankilevitch from Pexels
In Shut it down, start over, do it right, a group of scientists and health professionals has written an open letter to the US government recommending we shut down non-essential businesses, limit essential ones, keep people home more strictly, and use that time to reprioritize efforts like testing and contact tracing. Now that things have already started reopening I can't see how people would willingly go back to "shutdown" mode, but it does echo my previous thoughts about how time was wasted during the original shutdowns.

This article from The Atlantic, A Vaccine Reality Check, has also been making the rounds, and if you were one of those people who's been making plans for "once there's a vaccine," it could be a sobering wake-up call. It will take time to produce and distribute sufficient amounts of vaccines to build up herd immunity (assuming they provide somewhat of a long-lasting immunity), and that isn't even counting all the people who say they will refuse a vaccine or are on the fence about it. Plus, it would be the government facilitating all this, and as we've seen, the current administration hasn't been great about coordinating these types of efforts.

Finally, our governor gave a big press conference yesterday that some people suspected might be an announcement that schools would not be resuming in person in the fall. However, it was really an announcement that our state will be increasing contact tracing efforts - they have a contract with a staffing agency to hire several thousand contact tracers, and a contract with a software company for a Bluetooth app that notifies users if they've been in close contact with an infected person.

This is great news (contact tracking is one of the areas Covid Act Now has consistently ranked my state as lacking), though it doesn't resolve the question about the schools. I have lots of friends who are teachers, and of course parents, and they've all been sharing their districts' plans and their concerns for their jobs and/or kids. One friend just shared that her district's school board is having an online meeting this week regarding reopening plans, "due to the Governor's most recent mandate limiting groups to 25 people or less." Now if they can't safely meet in person, how would they reopen an entire school full of kids?! And this sort of thing is happening all over. The big city near us did announce that its reopening plan is on hold, but not before holding a marathon 5+ hour board meeting. It's a shame that, just like everything else so far, this is being done in such a patchwork way...

Tuesday, July 21, 2020

Check the Context

When I started this blog I thought I would be keeping track of all the changes my daily life, not debunking claims on social media, but here we go again with another one...

Photo by National Cancer Institute on Unsplash
I've seen lots of people, especially in the last week or so, posting screenshots of or even links to this page on the CDC web site about antibody testing. Notably, they are pulling out of context the quote that says that if you test positive, there's a chance it means you were infected with another virus from the coronavirus family, other than SARS-CoV-2 that causes COVID-19. And then they say something like, "So why are we bothering to test anyone?! All tests are fake!"

So to clarify: this quote is related to antibody testing (did you have it in the past), not testing for a current infection. It's not 100% accurate and doesn't really tell us a lot about the current situation, it's just useful to see the past spread of the disease in people who never got tested while they were ill or infectious, and to answer questions about whether someone may have actually had COVID-19 but didn't confirm with a test. It's still important to test and isolate patients while the virus is active, i.e. through a viral test.

While posts like these are attention-grabbing, please take the time to look at the context of the information before you rush to judgement. And be especially wary of posts that are just a screenshot of a web page, even if it's a reputable site like the CDC, as information has been changing and updating (because that's what science does), and sometimes posts circulating now are passing off months-old screenshots as if they're current. (Going back to the reason I started this blog - we all know how quickly regulations and recommendations have changed over the past several months.) I always recommend going to the source site yourself and seeing what the current page says now.

Sunday, July 19, 2020

Magic

We have a friend who's a magician. With the events and fairs he usually performs at cancelled this year, he's been focusing on online and virtual performances. He asked several weeks ago if he could use our backyard to livestream a virtual event (he performs with fire, so his indoor performance space was off-limits). Of course we said yes, and yesterday was the day.

The whole thing worked out very well - for the most part, he set everything up himself, though I did have to run some network cable through the house and out a window. He had a great set-up with his computer, camera, and microphone, and of course all his props and everything. We stayed >6 feet apart, plus wore masks, in the 92° heat and humidity, except for while he was performing (we were distanced, he just didn't have a mask on).

The show went great, all his technology worked and all his tricks were perfect, and my husband even got to participate at one point (distanced, with a mask). We didn't advertise that he was going to be in our yard, as I didn't want to draw a crowd, but the neighbors behind our house happened to enjoy the show from their own yard.

I think this was a great example of 1) the types of pivots that can be made to keep events going during this time, and 2) the types of "new normal" in-person interactions we should expect to be having for some time to come.

Saturday, July 18, 2020

Mass Death

Someone shared this Twitter thread today that put into words the impending doom that I've felt coming for the past few months. At first I thought maybe it wouldn't be as bad as I'd imagined - everything stayed relatively operational for the most part, and look, other countries are already starting to reopen and get back to normal! But no, somehow the US is going from bad to worse to even worse.

"It is worth it to give up a year of our lives so we don't have to give up the rest of our lives."










Thursday, July 16, 2020

Get It Together

As of today, our governor has reimplemented a lot of restrictions that had been lifted recently:
  • Indoor dining capacity is reduced (a lot of places still weren't even open for indoor dining, and I'm certainly not eating inside anywhere)
  • Bars are open for sit-down meals only, you can't just drink (I'm not going to any bars...)
  • Telework is mandated when possible - i.e. if your job can be done remotely, it should be (my office was planning a limited reopening in August, that's probably on hold now - not that I'm expecting to be back this year)
  • Gatherings are limited to 25 people indoors or 250 people outdoors (not sure who is serving as the party police, and these restrictions apparently don't extend to schools, which are still moving forward with their reopening plans)
Since we already had a red/yellow/green plan, with different restrictions at each level, wouldn't it have made more sense to just say, "We're going back from green to yellow," instead of "We're at the green level, but we're adding all these other restrictions?" What's the point of having this scale if you're not going to use it?

Waiting for take-out
I did just see an article suggesting that there is a real possibility of a nationwide consensus on face masks. Half the country currently mandates them in public spaces, including my state. About a month ago articles started coming out about "100% mask use could crush a second wave," and now the CDC says the US could get the virus under control in a couple months if everyone wore a mask. ...Then of course, there's Georgia, where the governor has banned cities and counties from ordering mask use 🤷‍♀️

We ordered take-out for dinner last night from a restaurant in a shopping center. I had to wait outdoors for a few minutes until it was ready, and I was very impressed with the mask compliance of everyone I saw going in and out of the shops and restaurants. Almost everyone had a mask on, a couple people had them pulled under their chins to sip a drink while they walked, and only one guy just fully didn't wear a mask at all (though I will give him the benefit of a doubt, he had just walked out of another shop and maybe he pulled it off as soon as he got outside...)

We'll get it together ... slowly ... I hope.

Monday, July 13, 2020

Enforcement

Photo by LOGAN WEAVER on Unsplash
Lots of states today are announcing new closures and restrictions to try to stop the virus from spreading out of control (it's already out of control, but ok...). My own state now mandates masks when you are outside your own home, and requests that people entering from certain other states quarantine for 14 days. Here's the problem with all these "rules" everyone keeps putting in place:
  1. A lot of people probably aren't aware of them. If I hadn't seen a couple Facebook posts about the places you're supposed to quarantine from in my state, how would I have known? I don't really watch the local news. I don't get newspapers. Maybe I would have heard on the radio?
  2. There is no mechanism to enforce any of these rules or guidelines. You can tell people they are supposed to wear masks, but nobody is actually going to force anyone to wear a mask. You can tell people that they are supposed to quarantine for 14 days after returning from certain states, but nobody is actually checking to see where people came from, or that they are quarantining like they're supposed to. In fact, the type of person who is traveling to different states right now is probably not the type of person who would conscientiously self quarantine when they get back home.
There was nothing stopping people from mingling when everything was more fully shut down (except the inconvenience of not having a public space to do it in), and now I'm seeing tons of pictures of people getting together with family, or just a couple friends. Businesses can take precautions, enforce mask wearing, etc. within their own site, but there's nothing stopping people from getting together outside of those workplaces. There have been models that show that even if people in a community each just associate with a couple other people, disease still spreads just like it would if everyone were interacting with everyone. So places can make all the rules and restrictions they want, but without enforcing them, it's pretty much pointless.

In other countries, when they were in "lockdown," they were actually locked down. If you left your house, you'd better have documentation of a good reason; if you were ordered to quarantine for 14 days and were found out in public, you could be arrested and fined; if you were out without a mask you could be fined, etc. That is why those countries have now moved from the lockdown period to the cautious reopening period, and why people from the US are not allowed to travel there.

The Happiest Place on Earth

The big news over the weekend was that the Disney World parks in Florida reopened. There were a couple days that were just for annual passholders, and then they opened to the public on Saturday. I'm not a Disney fan (and the thought of planning the logistics of a Disney vacation stresses me out), but I had been following their reopening plans out of curiosity.

Months ago, there was a meme going around that said something like, "I'll know it's safe to reopen things when Disney World reopens, because they don't want to be the place that kills grandma." Well, the US is in the midst of a huge spike in infections, many states are pausing or rolling back their reopening plans, Florida is setting daily records for new infections and their hospitals are at capacity, Disney's actual corporate offices are still operating remotely, and they've postponed their planned reopening for Disneyland in California... yet they decided to go ahead with their reopening plans in Florida 🤷‍♀️

While it does seem that the park is strict about enforcing that everyone correctly wear a mask at all times (even restricting certain types of face coverings), sanitizing surfaces, enforcing distancing, etc., some flaws are already evident in their system. For example, a pair of guests went to the first aid station complaining of sore throats and upset stomachs, but refused to be taken to the hospital, so with no other plan for dealing with sick guests, they were just released back into the park...

There have been many (many!) memes about the reopening of Disney World, but my favorite is this remix of the "Welcome Back" commercial:

Bite the Bullet

While much of the rest of the world is slowly and cautiously reopening, the US seems doomed to just accept high infection and death rates while people who don't have a choice (e.g. "essential" workers, students, teachers) are forced to go about their daily lives.

No progress is going to be made until people accept that whatever you were doing before, you just can't now. It's going to be dramatically different from now on, and maybe someday it will get back to something like the way it was before, but it will never be the same.

I'm thinking now that nothing will change until so many people have gotten sick and either died or have lasting damage; the healthcare system is stretched so thin that we don't have the people or supplies to deal with anything anymore; and the economy is so wrecked from businesses shutting down, supply chain and staffing issues, and just trying to operate without enough willing patrons (because of the aforementioned death and suffering); that people will be willing to finally listen, bite the bullet, truly shut down everything for a couple months, and make a dent in this thing through testing and real contact tracing and isolation of the sick and exposed. Ok, you might be giving up your "freedoms" for a couple weeks while you go into quarantine, but how much freedom do you really have right now?

Of course, it's not just the US - the WHO says "too many countries are headed in the wrong direction." But most of them aren't as dramatically wrong as the US. For a while I was thinking, "Maybe everyone who's going to get sick will get sick, and then eventually things will start getting better. But that probably wouldn't even happen because people's antibodies will wear off and they'll get infected all over again.

Also, we need to stop with the "Until there's a vaccine" or "Once there's a vaccine" comments. The existence of an effective vaccine is not going to clean up the world overnight. And the worse we let things get now, the harder it's going to be whenever a vaccine does become available.

...Just some thoughts that have been on my mind the past few days...

Wednesday, July 8, 2020

Back to School

Photo by Gustavo Fring from Pexels
The big news this week, in addition to ever increasing cases in the US (we passed 3,000,000 today), is planning for going back to school in the fall. Many school districts have been sending out surveys to parents and faculty, and people have been sharing their thoughts on social media.

From parents, it seems to be, "What are you doing with your kids next year - sending them to school, or doing remote learning?" Aside from a few whose kids thrived with remote learning, most seem to be looking forward to sending their kids back, as if everything will be totally normal with friends, sports, and activities. Many of the parents are saying going back will be better for their kids' mental health, maybe not realizing that the school they return to will be very different, with everyone wearing masks, separated, and unable to interact like usual.

Educators themselves seem much more conflicted. On one hand, they would love to be back in the school with their students. But on the other, there are a lot of logistical issues. Teachers could be with hundreds of different students each day, sometimes even in different schools. Students usually travel between teachers' classrooms, rather than the other way around, leading to more germ-spreading time. Teachers barely have enough lesson planning time as it is, let alone time to reconfigure all their hands-on lessons for a socially distanced or virtual environment, plus sanitize everything between classes. And there are concerns about them being exposed to so many people each day if they or a household member are in an at-risk category.

Lots of compromises have been proposed, like putting students on a staggered schedule by day or by week so not everyone is in the classroom at the same time. But if the same teachers and staff are with both cohorts of students, wouldn't exposure in one group still shut the whole school down? There's also concerns about getting adequate numbers of substitute teachers, who were hard to come by even pre-pandemic, and could be working in many different schools from day to day. One viral post I've seen outlines the schedule of the first day back, with the first "super spreader" event taking place on the bus before classes even start.

An article that came out last week says "In the Covid-19 Economy, You Can Have a Kid or a Job. You Can’t Have Both." If a parent chooses to homeschool their child, place them in remote learning, or has a child on a staggered in-school schedule, that means time away from their own work, whether they're physically going somewhere or working remotely.

There's also policy issues, as everything seems to be political now. After the president called the CDC's school reopening guidelines "tough and expensive," the CDC will be releasing a revised guide. The president also threatened to withhold federal funding from schools that don't reopen in the fall, and the Education Secretary demanded schools be "fully operational."

I wish schools had been more proactive, starting on the first day of summer break to put together a realistic plan for reopening, rather than waiting almost until fall and holding out with wishful thinking. We're still several weeks away from a final plan, and if things can get under control, maybe there will be a chance for some kind of semi-normal school year. But the way things are going currently, I just don't see how that can be a possibility. Either way, everyone is going to have to be flexible with things shutting down and restarting as needed for the foreseeable future...

Wednesday, July 1, 2020

Mask Up!

Photo by Gustavo Fring from Pexels
With the exception of the president himself, Republicans are now pushing mask-wearing. Our governor today mandated wearing face coverings (i.e. masks) any time you are outside your home (unless outdoors and able to stay at least 6 feet away from people). So, basically what I've been doing this whole time 🤷‍♀️ If we had done this right the first time, we could have been recovering and starting to reopen things right now. It only took 3 months, we're basically starting over from square one now, with an even bigger infection to try to contain, but hopefully people now take it seriously.

I went out for a drive today and went past the mall, which reopened last Friday. There were a lot more cars in the parking lots than I would have expected to see at 3 PM on a Wednesday during a pandemic. It looks like some entrances have been closed, and others are marked with one side for entry and one for exit. I think there are similar directional things inside - of course, I wasn't going in! I met someone through Instagram who works there (we both commented on a post about the mall's reopening), and she said it's been crazy and people are horrible ☹ I feel so bad for her - I guess I'm doing my part by just staying away from there..? Maybe now that this official mask mandate is in place, people will be more respectful of those who are working there...