Reality

For the past few days, I've been feeling really good, really comfortable. I was eating and sleeping well, and enjoying my hiatus at home. We're all getting into social distancing, we'll beat this thing!

Report 9: Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)
to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand

But earlier this week, I started hearing about this report released from Imperial College London. It probably led to the ramping up of the social distancing messaging from the government and the UK's sudden position change on taking precautions now. In a nutshell, as broken down by my very smart friend who is a PhD and professor of public health:

• If we do nothing, they estimate 2.2M Americans will die, including nearly 10% of Americans over 70.
• If we practice pretty extreme social distancing, that could be reduced to about 1.1M Americans
• No matter what we do, cases will vastly overrun hospital capacity. This is not accounted for in death toll estimates (e.g. someone with a heart attack who is rushed to a hospital overwhelmed by COVID-19)
• Until there’s a vaccine, any loosening of social distancing will result in a new outbreak. Maximum we could loosen maybe for a month, which would have to be followed by another two months of strict social distancing measures, or we get back to worst case again.
• Taken together, conclusion is under current circumstances we will have to social distance with schools closed, quarantine of cases, and home isolation for 12-18 months until vaccine is available.
• On the positive side:
• This is just a model - probably a good one, but could be wrong
• Treatments (like antiviral medication) could help and change things a lot
• Widespread testing may allow for alternate strategies that are much more palatable

And my own positive thoughts: how quickly does time fly? I find stuff in my cabinets that expired years ago, that I feel like I just bought. I can't believe I've been married almost 14 years, that I've lived in my home almost 9, that I'm creeping ever closer to 40. How quickly could a year of isolation pass?

Anyway, now I'm ready to just curl into a ball and cry again, which I thought I was past...